Total addressable market

Also called: TAM, Addressable market.

For local businesses, TAM is easiest to count in businesses rather than dollars: how many dentists are in your state, how many roofers in your metro. Multiply by expected price and win rate to estimate revenue.

There are two ways to count. Government statistics give totals: the US Census Bureau's County Business Patterns publishes establishment counts by NAICS industry and county. They're authoritative but lag a couple of years and don't name the businesses. A complete search of Google Maps gives you a named, current list you can actually contact, but its completeness depends on keywords and coverage.

The useful number is usually narrower: the serviceable market after applying your ICP (has a website, independent, inside your service area). Knowing it tells you how long your outbound can run before you've contacted everyone, and when to add a new town or trade.

Watch for double counting. Multi-location businesses, practitioners listed separately from their practice, and duplicates across searches all inflate counts.

Example

An agency counts 640 qualifying HVAC contractors in its metro. At 20 new conversations a week and a 5% close rate, it can estimate roughly how many clients the market holds and when it will need a second city.